AI-RSPM : Oil Spill Detection & Forecasting

Integrating Artificial Intelligence & Remote Sensing — Gulf of Suez · Ras Gharib case study

Sentinel-1 SAR feed By DR·Ayman Elzagh .2026

GeoAI framework for real-time marine pollution monitoring

This implements the AI Remote Sensing Pollution Monitor (AI-RSPM). Upload a satellite image (SAR or optical) and the system runs a convolutional-style pixel classifier, applies DBSCAN density clustering to segment oil spill footprints, and visualises LSTM-based trajectory forecasts informed by wind and current drift in the Gulf of Suez.

CNN / YOLOv11 pixel classification DBSCAN clustering LSTM 72h forecast Lagrangian drift Sentinel-1 · Sentinel-2 OpenWeather forcing

1 · Upload & detect

Drop a satellite image (SAR dark-slick or optical iridescent film). Oil pixels are identified by the convolutional detector and coloured overlays are drawn.
Click or drop an image here
JPG / PNG / TIFF preview · Sentinel-1 GRD recommended tag your upload with the correct polarization below so the detector uses the matching σ⁰ threshold and speckle filter.
Active polarization for next analysis: VV (co-pol)
VV (co-pol): best sensitivity to capillary waves oil slicks appear as distinct dark patches. Standard channel per ESA Sentinel-1 guidelines for marine pollution.
Original image
No image yet upload or pick a sample.
CNN detection + DBSCAN clusters
Detection results will appear here.
OIL COVERAGE
CLUSTERS (DBSCAN)
LARGEST SLICK
CNN CONFIDENCE

Technical Assessment

Sensor
Polarization
Backscatter range (σ⁰)
Acquisition date
Oil type
Scene size
Sensitivity
Signal quality
CNN confidence
Run analysis to produce an operational recommendation.

Feature Inventory

ID Shape Area (px) % Scene Severity
Run analysis to populate detected features.

Signature Discrepancies

Pending
Run analysis to cross-validate CNN pixel classifier against DBSCAN clustering and scene statistics.

Future enhancements — roadmap to lift analysis & performance

Practical upgrades that would materially improve the detector's accuracy, runtime and robustness on real Sentinel-1 tiles. Each card notes an expected gain relative to the current VV single-channel CNN baseline.
Dual-pol Bayesian fusion (VV ⊕ VH) accuracy
Replace the single-threshold detector with a per-pixel log-likelihood combining VV (dampening) and VH (cross-pol speckle floor). Cuts biogenic-film false alarms — the dominant look-alike in the Gulf.
+8–12 % F1 · fewer look-alike alerts
Polarimetric decomposition (H/α, Freeman-Durden) accuracy
For Sentinel-1 dual-pol acquisitions, use entropy/anisotropy/alpha parameters to discriminate oil from wind-shadowed sea, rain cells and low-wind patches — the top sources of SAR false positives.
−30 % false-positive rate in calm seas
Attention U-Net segmentation head accuracy
Swap the thresholding stage for an attention-gated U-Net trained on ERA5-aligned Sentinel-1 tiles. Learns slick morphology (feather, blocky, ribbon) rather than relying on raw σ⁰.
+6 % mIoU at 20 m/pix
MC-Dropout uncertainty maps accuracy
Run T = 20 stochastic forward passes and emit a per-pixel uncertainty layer. The operator can gate auto-tasking on low variance, reducing spurious drone deployments.
Calibrated confidence · explainable alerts
WebGL / WebGPU kernel for DBSCAN speed
Move the per-pixel CNN score and the DBSCAN neighbour-query onto the GPU via a compute shader. Opens the door to 10 k × 10 k whole-tile processing in-browser.
≈ 25× runtime speed-up on 5 MP images
ONNX / TensorFlow-JS quantised CNN speed
Ship a distilled INT-8 CNN (≈ 2 MB) as an ONNX blob so the real thesis model runs client-side — no synthetic scoring, no server round-trip. Uses WebAssembly SIMD on CPUs without GPUs.
True thesis-model inference · < 400 ms per scene
Copernicus DataSpace live tiling data
Stream the most recent Sentinel-1 IW GRD tile covering the active AOI directly from the CDSE STAC endpoint. Removes the upload step for monitoring workflows.
Fresh imagery every ~6 days · no manual upload
ERA5 wind + HYCOM current fusion data
Ingest 0.25° ERA5 winds and HYCOM surface currents at the scene centroid to replace the 3% wind-only Lagrangian drift with a proper leeway + current model improves 72 h trajectory skill.
−40 % mean position error at 48 h
Temporal change detection (Δt baseline) data
Cache the last 4 passes over a AOI and flag dark patches that appear against a rolling baseline. Rules out persistent dark sea-state regions (upwelling cells, rain shadows).
Fewer seasonal false alarms
Class-weighted contrastive pre-training accuracy
Use SimCLR/MoCo on unlabeled Gulf-of-Suez S1 tiles before fine-tuning, addressing the severe class imbalance (≈ 1:5,000 oil vs. sea pixels) without aggressive oversampling.
+4 % recall at same precision
Distributed inference on Kubernetes scale
Package the CNN + drift engine as a horizontally-scalable service (KFServing / Ray Serve). Supports basin-wide continuous monitoring — the operational target of the thesis.
~10³ AOIs / hour throughput
Vessel-AIS cross-correlation scale
Join detected slicks with nearby AIS tracks (MarineTraffic / Global Fishing Watch) to flag probable-source vessels and estimate spill age from ship trajectories.
Actionable attribution · supports enforcement

2 · Gulf of Suez situational map

Known production fields and recorded spill hotspots around Ras Gharib. Click a marker for field details.
Active oil field Historical spill site Detection target (Ras Gharib) Drift trajectory (72h) Active AOI
Area of Interest (AOI) — spill origin
or Lat Lng Radius (km)
No AOI set. Simulation uses default Ras Gharib origin (28.353°N, 33.080°E).
OpenWeather API — real-time wind & sea conditions for Ras Gharib
No key yet — simulation uses a default SE wind of 5.5 m/s. Get a free key at openweathermap.org.

3 · LSTM 72-hour trajectory forecast

Probabilistic drift prediction combining a physical Lagrangian model with an LSTM recurrent network trained on historical Red Sea currents and wind fields. Pick a scenario from the thesis case study:
TIME TO SHORELINE
PEAK DRIFT DIST
CROSS-TRACK σ (95%)
RISK LEVEL

4 · LSTM 72-hour trajectory curve

Parametric trajectory graph — displacement from the spill origin in kilometres (Δeast vs Δnorth). The mean LSTM ensemble path is shown as a curve with time waypoints at 0, 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72 hours; the 95% confidence envelope comes from the N = 128 Monte-Carlo perturbations of wind and current forcing. This is the "drift butterfly" used in the thesis §3.2.7 to visualise spatial uncertainty over the 72-hour forecast horizon.
BEARING
MEAN VELOCITY
TORTUOSITY (L/D)
95% ERROR ELLIPSE @ 72H
Validation: in the thesis, drifter-buoy tests yielded a mean spatial error of 312 m and directional accuracy of 83% at the 72 h lead time (Ch. 3.2.8). The curve updates when you switch scenarios, regenerate the ensemble, or when live OpenWeather wind is merged.

Monthly drift scenarios — Regular vs Worst case

All 24 scenarios from the thesis (12 months × Regular/Worst). Ras Gharib spill origin at 28.64°N, 32.94°E. Regular cases are 50 bbl under prevailing northwesterly winds and typically drift south/south-east offshore. Worst cases are 1,000 bbl events under anomalous winds that can push oil toward populated coasts. Pick a month to compare the two trajectories side-by-side on the map.

Heavy crude · 810 kg/m³ · API 28° Acquisition: — 72h simulation · 1h step Lagrangian + LSTM ensemble ITOPF size categories

Scenario settings

Set the acquisition date for the report header and choose an oil type — it scales the Lagrangian drift coefficient applied to every scenario (both Regular 50 bbl and Worst 1,000 bbl) so lighter oils drift noticeably further per 72 h.
Using thesis baseline: Heavy crude · API 28° · drift multiplier 1.00.

Select month

Each button corresponds to a thesis figure (Fig 3.8–3.12 and extensions).
Regular case · 50 bbl Worst case · 1,000 bbl Spill origin (Ras Gharib) Active AOI Live OpenWeather trajectory
Area of Interest (AOI) — spill origin (monthly scenarios)
or Lat Lng Radius (km)
No AOI set. Simulation uses default Ras Gharib origin (28.64°N, 32.94°E).
OpenWeather live wind — merge real-time wind at the AOI into the drift prediction (overrides the thesis wind for the selected month).
Using thesis-defined wind for the selected month (Regular + Worst case).

Regular case — —

Volume
Wind (from)
Oil bearing
Drift speed
Distance @ 24h
Distance @ 72h
Shoreline contact
AI-RSPM action

Worst case — —

Volume
Wind (from)
Oil bearing
Drift speed
Distance @ 24h
Distance @ 72h
Shoreline contact
AI-RSPM action

Case Study 2 — AI-RSPM for plastic & marine debris

Mandarah Beach, Alexandria (31.29°N, 30.02°E) — a 1.5 km stretch on Egypt's Mediterranean coast, downstream of the Nile Delta which injects an estimated 80–106 billion microplastic particles into the eastern basin per year. AI-RSPM combines Sentinel-2 MSI (13 bands, 10 m GSD), UAV imagery, spectral indices (FDI, NDVI, NDWI), YOLOv11m (98% classification accuracy) and a GNOME Lagrangian drift model to detect, classify and forecast floating plastic aggregates > 10 m².

Sentinel-2 L1C · ACOLITE corrected FDI > 0.01 threshold YOLOv11m · 98% acc. 70–80% accuracy · clear water GNOME Lagrangian · 312 m spatial err. 21.9% more sensitive than TouMaLi

1 · Upload Sentinel-2 / UAV scene

Optical imagery is analysed with FDI = NIR − [RE2 + (SWIR1 − RE2) × (λNIR − λRE2) / (λSWIR1 − λRE2)]. Pixels with high FDI and low NDWI are flagged as plastic candidates and passed to the YOLOv11m classifier.
Click or drop a Sentinel-2 / UAV image here
JPG / PNG · RGB or multispectral preview
Input scene
Upload an image to begin.
FDI mask + YOLOv11m aggregates
Detection results will appear here.
DEBRIS COVERAGE
AGGREGATES (YOLO)
MEAN FDI
MODEL CONFIDENCE

Technical Assessment

Sensor
Scene
Acquisition date
Pollutant type
FDI threshold
Clear-water factor
YOLO confidence
Run analysis to generate a response recommendation.

Material Inventory

Polymer Buoyancy Density Share Severity
Run analysis to estimate polymer composition.

Detection Discrepancies

Pending
Run analysis to cross-validate FDI anomalies against YOLOv11 classifier and scene statistics.

2 · Mandarah & Egypt coastal hotspots

Mediterranean and Red Sea plastic hotspots, Nile-Delta injection point, and priority cleanup sites identified by AI-RSPM. Click a marker for field notes.
Mandarah Beach (case site) Plastic hotspot Nile-Delta plastic flux Cleanup / monitoring station

3 · Coastal waste composition (2025)

Field survey data (Haseler et al., 2025; El-Alfy et al., 2025). Toggle between Egypt's coasts.

4 · AI-RSPM vs. TouMaLi

Comparison from thesis §3.2 and §4.1.4 — both systems remain conceptually complementary.
SENSITIVITY GAIN
+21.9%
LATENCY REDUCTION
61.9% faster
DIRECTIONAL ACC.
83% · 72h
SPATIAL ERROR
~312 m

Spectral indices — NDVI, NDWI & AI-RSPM classification

Indices are computed from the scene currently loaded in the Detection sub-tab. NDVI flags vegetation/biogenic material on or near the water surface; NDWI separates water from land; the AI-RSPM classifier combines these with FDI + YOLOv11m to produce a pixel-level class map. Click Recompute indices to refresh after changing the input image.

NDVI — Vegetation / biogenic

NDVI = (NIR − RED) / (NIR + RED)
Bare / water
Dense veg.

NDWI — Water body index

NDWI = (GREEN − NIR) / (GREEN + NIR)
Land / dry
Open water

AI-RSPM classification (Mandarah)

YOLOv11m + FDI + NDVI + NDWI · 98% training acc.
Classified
Plastic
Open water
Beach / sand
Vegetation
Plastic debris
Suspended matter
Built / rock

AI-RSPM classification result map — Mandarah Beach

Thesis §3.2.6 reference scene. The map below renders the canonical Mandarah classification output with beach, water column, Nile-plume turbidity, and detected plastic aggregates plotted on the Alexandria coastline.
WATER
BEACH / SAND
VEGETATION
PLASTIC AGGREGATES

OpenWeather API Mandarah Beach wind & sea state

Live meteorological forcing for the Lagrangian drift model. Uses the same OpenWeather endpoint as Case 1, but centred on Mandarah (31.29°N, 30.02°E). Without a key, the drift simulation falls back to a default westerly 6 m/s breeze typical of Alexandria's winter regime.
Enter your OpenWeather API key (same as Case 1 if already tested).
No key yet — drift model uses default W wind of 6 m/s (Alexandria winter regime).

Plastic drift & aggregation forecast map

GNOME-style Lagrangian trajectory from Mandarah origin under current wind forcing. Time markers at 6/12/24/48/72 h. Press ▶ Animate to visualise particle drift.
Mandarah spill origin Plastic drift trajectory Aggregation centroid Active AOI
Area of Interest (AOI) plastic release origin
or Lat Lng Radius (km)
No AOI set. Simulation uses default Mandarah origin (31.2855°N, 30.0218°E).

72-hour aggregation forecast

LSTM ensemble prediction of plastic concentration (particles/m²) over the next 72 h at the Mandarah monitoring grid. Uncertainty band widens with lead time.
PEAK TIME
PEAK CONC.
DRIFT @ 72h
BEARING
Based on thesis §3.2.8 validated against 12 drifter buoys (mean spatial error 312 m, directional accuracy 83% at 72 h lead time).